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Signal · Strategy

The Strategy Partner

By Lewis Howard · Founder, Co-CEO BRAE11 July 20268 min read

Most Chief Sustainability Officers I talk to want to be working on the future.

They took the role to imagine better versions of the businesses they serve - to help redesign how a company sources, makes and moves things so it can thrive in a world that is visibly changing. And many of them find themselves doing something quite different: measuring the past. Counting last year's emissions, filing the disclosure, restating the tonnes. That measurement matters, and it has to be done well - but it faces backward, and it is rarely the reason they took the job. The frustration is not with the work. It is with being held one step behind the decisions that actually shape the company.

There is a larger role waiting, and it is a strategic one. Sustainability becomes most valuable to a business the moment the CSO moves from reporting function to design partner: sitting beside the CEO and the wider C-suite, helping shape the direction of the company so that it is deliberately less exposed to the pressures bearing down on it - physical and climate risk, cost and economic shocks, the regulation arriving over the horizon. That is not measurement. It is strategy. And done well, it makes sustainability one of the most useful leading indicators a leadership team has: a warning light for where the world is about to reach the business, read early enough to design around it rather than report on it afterward.

The skill is translation

Here is the part that is easy to miss. The signal a CSO holds is not one message. It is the same underlying exposure, read differently by every leader who needs it.

To the CFO, an exposure is earnings volatility and a cost base hostage to events. To the head of growth, it is market access and the direction demand is quietly moving. To the general counsel, it is liability and the regulation arriving over the horizon. To the COO and the supply chain team, it is continuity - whether the line keeps running when something upstream breaks. One exposure, four languages. The CSO's craft is not to own all four responses. It is to see the exposure first and route it to whoever owns it, in the terms that let them act.

That is what a leading indicator does. It does not fix the engine. It tells the driver, early and in a form they understand, that something needs attention. A CSO who works this way stops being a parallel reporting function and becomes part of the central nervous system of the business.

Exposure, and how much of the world reaches you

So it is worth being precise about the thing being read. Every input a business depends on carries exposure: the degree to which its cost, its availability and its continuity are hostage to events the company does not control. And that exposure is both financial and physical - a price that can be shocked, and a supply that can physically fail to arrive.

Inputs are not equally exposed. Some are tightly coupled to the world's tremors, so a distant shock reaches them fast and hard. Others are insulated, and barely register the same event. That is the useful half of the old idea of elasticity: not a number to coin, but a question to ask of everything you depend on - how elastic is this input's exposure to shocks I have no hand in? The carbon figure, for all its rigour, is silent on the answer. And a transition choice made well can lower the exposure and the carbon at the same time. That second return goes unpriced and unreported, which is precisely why it is where the advantage still sits, waiting to be read by someone looking for it.

Four short illustrations, each landing in a different leader's language.

A fuel bill, read for the CFO

Diesel is a globally traded commodity, priced by a market that answers to distant decisions, refinery outages and conflict thousands of miles away. A tremor in the Strait of Hormuz reaches a UK haulier's fuel bill within days. The operator changed nothing, yet their cost base was just rewritten by an event they had no part in. High exposure, tightly coupled.

Biomethane from local anaerobic digestion sits on a different wire. At full substitution, and from the right feedstock, it can cut carbon by around eighty per cent against diesel, so it reads well on the axis everyone already tracks. Its quieter value is structural: sourced domestically, priced locally, made from feedstock with no tie to the oil market, so the same shock barely touches it. It is not a flawless answer - feedstock competes, and methane leakage above roughly five per cent in the chain can erode much of the carbon gain - but as one decision it lowers both carbon and cost volatility. The CSO's job is to hand the CFO the second half of that story, the half the emissions figure leaves out.

A hidden dependency, read for the COO

Exposure often hides one step removed. In late 2021, a surge in natural gas prices made UK ammonia production uneconomic and the producer CF Industries idled its plants. Those plants happened to supply, as a byproduct, around sixty per cent of Britain's food-grade carbon dioxide - the gas used to stun animals for slaughter, package fresh food and carbonate drinks. Within days a gas-market spike had become a question of whether abattoirs could run, and the government was paying to restart production.

No one in the meat industry had chosen to depend on the price of gas. They had inherited a long, invisible chain with very high exposure to a market they held no stake in. That is a continuity risk the COO needs surfaced - and the lesson underneath it is one Reverberate is built on: you cannot route an exposure you cannot locate.

A drying summer, read for the board

Some exposures ask a company to act before the shock, not after, and that is where the futures question lives. 2025 was one of England's worst drought years in memory: multiple regions in drought, hosepipe bans across millions of households, reservoirs at their lowest in a decade, and an estimated eight hundred million pounds of lost arable production in a single harvest. A year later, after a wet winter, reservoirs had refilled to around their seasonal normal. The recovery is not the reassurance it looks like. The swing is the risk, and beneath it a structural change in rhythm: Britain's winters are getting wetter and its summers drier, with summer rainfall in the south projected to fall by as much as a half by the 2070s under a high-emissions path. The water is not vanishing. It is arriving at the wrong time.

Read as a green project, investing now in water storage and reuse looks like cost. Read as exposure, it is a resilience investment with a sustainability dividend - capturing winter abundance to cover summer scarcity, hedging a physical input the way a treasurer hedges a volatile one. That is a capital-allocation call for the board, surfaced by the person who saw the rhythm break first.

A narrow palette, read for growth and operations

The same logic runs through the factory. A business built on a single, globally concentrated input - a rare earth, a speciality polymer, a mineral mined in effectively one country - carries high exposure to that chokepoint whatever its carbon profile. Part of a serious transition strategy is widening the palette: designing for substitutable materials and a shorter, more diverse chain, so a shock in one node slows the line rather than stopping it. Lower carbon is often the route to that width, not a trade against it.

Leading, not lagging

Step back and the distinction is the whole argument. The measurement view is lagging: it tells you, in tonnes, what already happened. The strategist's view is leading: it tells you where the business is exposed before the shock lands, and where the transition is quietly buying that exposure down. Same person, two entirely different jobs - and only one of them belongs where strategy is decided.

A CSO who reads sustainability as a leading indicator of risk and transformation, and translates it into the language of the CFO, the head of growth, the general counsel and the COO, is not counting anything. They are giving the business its earliest warning of where the world is about to reach it, and its clearest map of how a transition can shorten that reach. Risk, resilience, commercial, futures: one signal, many readers.

The reach of a shock

A shock somewhere in the world is a stone dropped in water. Exposure is how far the ripples travel before they reach you. Most companies have spent a decade measuring only their own splash - the carbon they add. The next decade belongs to the ones who also read the reach, and put someone senior in the room whose job is to see it coming.

This is what Reverberate is built to hold: exposure per input, per site, per chain, financial and physical - so the signal can be read early and routed to the people who can act on it. The carbon number was only ever half the picture. The other half is how far the world can reach you, and how deliberately your transition can hold it back.

Sources

Shortage of food-grade CO2 threatens the UK — Chemical & Engineering News. How a 2021 natural gas price surge idled UK ammonia plants supplying ~60% of the country's food-grade CO2, threatening meat processing and food packaging.

Droughts in England — House of Commons Library. The 2025 drought: multiple English areas in drought, reservoir stocks at their lowest in a decade, and the widening seasonal gap between wetter winters and drier summers.

Summer drought costs UK arable farmers over £800m — Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit. ECIU analysis estimating a £828m revenue hit to five key arable crops from the 2025 drought and record heat - a 20% fall on the 10-year average.

UK Climate Projections (UKCP18): Headline Findings — Met Office. Under a high-emissions path, UK summers are projected to get drier and winters wetter, with average summer rainfall down by up to ~47% by 2070 and the largest reductions in the south.

Integration of biogas systems into a carbon zero economy: a review — Environmental Chemistry Letters. Life-cycle evidence on biomethane's climate benefit against fossil comparators, with upstream methane leakage (~5.5% threshold) as the key caveat.

Topics
CSO strategyclimate risktransition strategyphysical riskexposurecorporate resiliencesustainability leadership
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