Prologis Cajamar II · Transition modelFACILITY

Operating in Cajamar, São Paulo within the Tietê watershed, the facility currently carries a High overall water risk score (3.33, 60-75% band), with Medium-High baseline water stress (score 2.47, 20-40%), a notably high untreated wastewater score (2.81), and elevated drought score (2.87), while riverine flood risk is moderate (1.54) and coastal flood risk is zero given its inland location. As a logistics/distribution asset, the dominant impact channel is Scope 2 GHG via grid electricity: Brazil's observed 2025 grid intensity is 109.95 gCO2/kWh (Ember), already well below global averages, meaning this site's carbon impact intensity is comparatively low today even as its water-related physical exposure is the more material risk driver. No flow-level data (water withdrawal, energy consumption volumes) is provided, limiting quantification of absolute dependency magnitude.

Grid intensity is the clearest near-term signal: IEA WEO 2024 STEPS projects Brazil's grid falling to 70 gCO2/kWh by 2030, more than a one-third reduction from the 2025 observed value, which will mechanically lower Scope 2 intensity for this energy-dependent facility even without on-site intervention. Water-side horizon data (wd_future_score, ws_future_score, labels for 2030/2050/2080) are all null, so no forward view exists on whether Medium-High baseline water stress (20-40%) or High overall water risk will intensify or ease by 2030; this is a data gap rather than a benign signal given the site's already-elevated drought and untreated wastewater sub-scores."

By 2050 Brazil's grid is expected to reach 40 gCO2/kWh under IEA STEPS, reinforcing Brazil's structural advantage as a low-carbon operating geography and likely rendering Scope 2 immaterial for this site's long-run footprint. The residual risk profile is therefore overwhelmingly physical and water-related rather than transition-related, but the dataset provides no 2050/2080 water stress or demand labels, leaving the long-term trajectory of Tietê basin stress, drought frequency, and wastewater treatment adequacy unquantified. Absent updated Aqueduct-style projections, decision-makers should treat current High water risk and drought scores as a floor, not a ceiling, for 2050+ planning.