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Prologis Park Budapest-Harbor · Transition modelFACILITY

Prologis · asset · Budapest, HU · 47.498, 19.040
basis: MEASURED · confidence: 0.65 · status: active

Climate & nature exec summaryBudapest, HU · claude-sonnet-5 · 2026-07-07

Prologis Park Budapest-Harbor faces low water stress on the Danube today, with the site's transition risk profile hinging almost entirely on Hungary's grid decarbonisation curve rather than physical hazard.

Today

This 150,000 sqm logistics/distribution park sits in the Danube watershed (ex 643-647) under Low (<10%) baseline water stress (BWS score 0) and Low-Medium overall physical risk (score 1.24), with negligible coastal or riverine flood exposure (0 and 0.42 respectively). The site's dominant dependency is grid electricity rather than water, and its dominant impact is Scope 2 GHG emissions tied to the Hungarian grid, which in 2025 carried a carbon intensity of 163.02 gCO2/kWh per Ember data. Drought score (3.61) is the one water metric worth watching, though it does not currently translate into an elevated overall risk label.

Near-term · 2030

By the 2030 horizon, IEA WEO 2024 STEPS projects Hungary's grid intensity rising sharply to 95 gCO2/kWh equivalent on the horizon scale used here — a material shift in the emissions-intensity trajectory that logistics tenants and Prologis's Scope 2 accounting should track closely. No forward water-stress or drought horizon scores (2030/2050/2080) are populated in this dataset, so physical water risk trajectory cannot be quantified beyond the current Low baseline; this is a data gap rather than a confirmed benign outlook.

Long-term · 2050+

The 2050 grid horizon shows a marked improvement to 30 gCO2/kWh, consistent with a strong decarbonisation trajectory for the Hungarian power system under STEPS assumptions, which would substantially reduce the facility's embedded Scope 2 footprint if realized. No 2080 grid or water-stress data is available, limiting long-horizon physical risk assessment; residual exposure to riverine flood and drought along the Danube corridor should be revisited once forward-looking water scores are populated.

Call-outs
WATCH
2030 grid intensity spike
Hungary's projected 2030 grid carbon intensity of 95 gCO2/kWh is a step up from the 2025 observed 163.02 gCO2/kWh baseline comparison point and should be monitored for Scope 2 planning.
OPPORTUNITY
2050 grid decarbonisation
IEA STEPS projects Hungarian grid intensity falling to 30 gCO2/kWh by 2050, offering a structural tailwind for Scope 2 emissions reduction without site-level intervention.
WATCH
Missing water horizon data
No 2030/2050/2080 water-stress or drought projections are populated, leaving long-term physical water risk for this Danube-basin site unquantified.
RISK
Elevated drought score
A drought score of 3.61 stands out against an otherwise low physical risk profile and warrants monitoring given the site's logistics-continuity sensitivity.

Flows0 total · 0 in / 0 out · plus site context + supply/downstream

Inputs (dependencies)
WATER · site context · Aqueduct 4.0
REALM · FRESHWATER
BWS 0.00 · Low (<10%) · DANUBE (ex 643, 644, 645, 646, 647)
Water stress: 0.00 · 2030 · 2050 · 2080
Water depletion: 2030 · 2050 · 2080
ENERGY · site context · grid carbon
REALM · ATMOSPHERE
HU · Ember observed + IEA WEO STEPS
2025: 163 gCO₂/kWh2030: 952050: 302080:
Outputs (impacts + product)
None.

Compositions

Parent (rolls up into)
Children (0)
None.