Prologis Park Dutra RJ (Building 100) · Transition modelFACILITY

As a logistics/distribution facility, the site's dominant dependency is grid electricity rather than water withdrawal, with the observed 2025 Brazil grid intensity at 109.95 gCO2/kWh (Ember Yearly Electricity 2025) — already low versus global peers, so Scope 2 impact is modest today. The location-specific physical pressure is water-related: baseline water stress (BWS) is Low-Medium (10-20%, score 1.26) and water depletion is low (0.61), but the overall composite water risk score is High (3.33, 60-75% label), driven by an elevated untreated wastewater score (2.81) and moderate riverine flood exposure (2.42) in the South Atlantic watershed (ex 154, 158, 160, 350, 353, 372). Drought score (2.30) adds further pressure beyond simple stress metrics.

By 2030, Brazil's grid carbon intensity is forecast to rise sharply to 70 gCO2/kWh per IEA WEO 2024 STEPS — a notable increase from the 2025 observed 109.95 baseline framing suggests near-term volatility in the country's generation mix rather than a clean linear decline; Scope 2 exposure should be reassessed against this trajectory. Water horizon scores (WD/WS future scores and 2080 labels) are not populated in this dataset, so forward-looking physical water risk cannot be quantified beyond the current-state composite; the High overall water risk label should be treated as the operative near-term signal until horizon data is available.

The 2050 grid horizon shows further improvement to 40 gCO2/kWh (IEA WEO 2024 STEPS), reinforcing Brazil's long-run decarbonisation trajectory and structurally shrinking the facility's Scope 2 footprint. Residual physical risk is concentrated in water: untreated wastewater and riverine flood pressures are unlikely to resolve via decarbonisation alone and warrant site-level adaptation planning, particularly given the absence of 2050/2080 water horizon projections to confirm trend direction.