Prologis Park Lodi · Transition modelFACILITY

The facility's dominant dependency is grid electricity (logistics/distribution asset, no on-site energy or water flow data reported), with Scope 2 emissions currently exposed to Italy's grid intensity of 284.78 gCO2/kWh (2025, Ember). Baseline water stress is Low-Medium (10-20%, BWS score 1.34), but the site's overall water risk score of 2.6 (Medium-High, 50-60% label) is driven by an elevated drought score of 3.26 in the PO watershed, indicating chronic drought pressure rather than acute withdrawal competition. Flood exposure is negligible today (coastal 0, riverine 0.10).

By 2030, Italy's grid carbon intensity is projected to fall sharply to 130 gCO2/kWh under IEA WEO 2024 STEPS — a greater than 50% reduction from the 2025 observed value — meaningfully lowering Scope 2 exposure without any site-level intervention required. No forward water-stress or drought horizon scores are available for 2030 (fields null), so the trajectory of the PO basin's drought pressure cannot yet be quantified; this is a data gap analysts should flag rather than assume stability.

The Italian grid is projected to decarbonise further to 50 gCO2/kWh by 2050 (IEA STEPS), effectively neutralizing Scope 2 as a material impact driver for this facility if the trajectory holds. Residual physical risk centers on the Po basin's drought dynamics, which are not covered by any 2050/2080 water horizon data in this dataset — a critical blind spot given northern Italy's documented multi-year drought episodes in the Po valley. Long-term risk assessment should not be considered complete until watershed-specific drought and water-stress projections are sourced.