Norton Folgate · Transition modelFACILITY

The dominant location-specific pressure today is water stress: the site scores 3.39 (High, 40-80% baseline water stress) in the North Sea watershed (ex 605, 629, 633, 634, 638), with a drought score of 3.31 signaling elevated dependency risk on municipal water supply. Overall physical risk is currently Low (score 0.64), and flood exposure is minimal — coastal flood score 0 and riverine flood score 1.03. The dominant impact channel is Scope 2 GHG via grid electricity, currently drawing on the GB grid at an observed 217.41 gCO2/kWh (Ember 2025). No flow-level water or energy consumption data is populated for this facility, limiting quantification of absolute dependency volumes.

By the 2030 horizon, the GB grid carbon intensity is projected to rise sharply to 100 gCO2/kWh per IEA WEO 2024 STEPS — notably higher than the 2025 observed value of 217.41, which is itself inconsistent with a declining trajectory and warrants scrutiny of the horizon methodology or interim grid volatility. Water-stress and drought future scores are not populated for 2030, 2050, or 2080, so no forward view exists on the site's dominant physical dependency; this is a data gap analysts should flag rather than assume stability.

By 2050, the GB grid is modeled to decarbonise substantially to 30 gCO2/kWh, materially reducing Scope 2 exposure and reinforcing a positive long-term energy-transition trajectory for this facility. Residual physical risk is harder to characterize: with no 2050/2080 water-stress, drought, or flood horizon scores available, the persistence of the current High water-stress classification into 2050+ cannot be confirmed from this dataset and should be treated as an open exposure rather than a resolved one.