Portland International Airport Terminal (Phase 1) · Transition modelFACILITY

The site sits in the Columbia watershed (COLUMBIA ex 416) with a Low baseline water risk profile — baseline water stress score of 0 (Low, <10%), overall water risk score of 0.88 (Low, <25%), and negligible coastal flood exposure, though riverine flood score of 1.15 and drought score of 1.45 warrant monitoring rather than urgent action. With no operational flows recorded yet (asset is Phase 1, likely still in construction/build-out for Skanska), the dominant present-state dependency is grid electricity, and the dominant impact vector is Scope 2 GHG intensity, currently observed at 384.4 gCO2/kWh for the US grid (Ember 2025) — a carbon-intensive baseline typical of pre-decarbonization US power mix.

By the 2030 horizon, IEA WEO 2024 STEPS projects US grid intensity falling to 220 gCO2/kWh, a reduction of roughly 43% from the 2025 observed value, which will materially lower embodied Scope 2 exposure for any energy-intensive terminal operations (HVAC, lighting, baggage systems) once operational. Water-side horizon data (2030/2050/2080 water stress and depletion projections) is not populated for this site, so forward physical water risk trajectory cannot be quantified at this time — this is a data gap rather than a signal of stability.

The 2050 grid horizon shows a further steep decline to 80 gCO2/kWh, an ~79% reduction from 2025 levels, indicating the US decarbonization trajectory (STEPS scenario) will substantially de-risk any electricity-linked Scope 2 impact for this asset by mid-century. Residual physical risk is concentrated in water: while current scores are Low, the Columbia watershed's drought score (1.45) and riverine flood score (1.15) are non-zero and lack forward-looking horizon labels, so long-term physical resilience should be reassessed once 2050/2080 water projections become available.