Cape Town · Transition modelFACILITY

This GSK manufacturing facility in Cape Town, ZA is explicitly flagged as a high water risk site, sitting in a basin (Indian Ocean ex-189 / South Atlantic ex-154,158,350,352,353,372 watershed) rated Extremely High baseline water stress (BWS score 5, >80%) with a water depletion score of 5 and a drought score of 2.87 — the dominant physical dependency and impact channel for this asset. Untreated wastewater risk is elevated (score 2.0), while flood exposure is low (coastal 0.001, riverine 0.67). On the atmosphere side, the facility draws on South Africa's grid, currently carbon-intensive at an observed 699.29 gCO2/kWh (2025, Ember), making Scope 2 electricity the primary GHG impact pathway; no site-level energy or water flow volumes are recorded in this dataset.

By 2030 the grid emissions factor is expected to decline to 510 gCO2/kWh (IEA WEO 2024 STEPS), a meaningful step down from the 2025 observed 699.29 gCO2/kWh, easing Scope 2 exposure for this energy-dependent manufacturing asset. Water-side forward horizons (2030 water stress and depletion scores) are not populated in the dataset, so the trajectory of the site's dominant physical dependency remains unquantified even as the region's overall composite risk is currently rated Low-Medium (25-50%, score 1.64) — a rating that sits in tension with the Extremely High baseline water stress score and warrants reconciliation.

By 2050 the South African grid is projected to reach 270 gCO2/kWh under IEA WEO STEPS, a roughly 61% reduction from the 2025 observed value of 699.29, which would substantially cut Scope 2 emissions intensity for this facility absent any operational change. However, no 2050 or 2080 water stress, depletion, or wastewater projections are available in this dataset, leaving the site's long-term physical water trajectory undefined; given the Western Cape's history of acute drought (Day Zero, 2018), residual water risk should be treated as structurally elevated rather than assumed to improve alongside emissions.