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Irvine facility · Transition modelFACILITY

GSK · manufacturing · Irvine, GB · 55.613, -4.670
basis: MEASURED · confidence: 0.65 · status: active

Climate & nature exec summaryIrvine, GB · claude-sonnet-5 · 2026-07-07

GSK's Irvine manufacturing site combines low physical water risk with a UK grid on a steep 2050 decarbonisation path, while its own wind turbine investment already offsets Scope 2 exposure.

Today

The Irvine facility's dominant present-day dependency is grid electricity, currently at an observed GB carbon intensity of 217.41 gCO2/kWh (Ember 2025), with Scope 2 GHG as the primary impact; physical water pressure is currently Low, with baseline water stress scored 0 (Low, <10%) and overall water risk at 0.64 (Low, <25%) in the North Atlantic watershed, and coastal/riverine flood scores are low (1.21 and 1.23 respectively), indicating water is not a near-term operational constraint at this site.

Near-term · 2030

By 2030, the horizon grid carbon intensity is still modelled at 100 gCO2/kWh (IEA STEPS), well below the 2025 observed 217.41 gCO2/kWh but not yet reflecting the steeper decarbonisation expected between 2030 and 2050; the site's direct wind investment therefore remains the more controllable lever for near-term Scope 2 reduction while water-related physical risk metrics (bws, drought, flood) are expected to stay in the Low band absent new data.

Long-term · 2050+

By 2050, GB grid intensity is projected at 30 gCO2/kWh (IEA WEO 2024 STEPS), effectively decarbonising the residual Scope 2 footprint not already covered by the site's wind turbines, leaving asset resilience and any residual water/flood exposure (currently Low, drought score 2.35) as the main ongoing physical-risk watch items rather than transition risk.

Call-outs
OPPORTUNITY
On-site renewable power investment
The site's own wind turbine investment provides a hedge against grid carbon intensity and price volatility, positioning it ahead of peers on Scope 2 decarbonisation.
WATCH
Grid intensity glide path
GB grid carbon intensity is modelled to fall from an observed 217.41 gCO2/kWh (2025) to a 2050 horizon of 30 gCO2/kWh under IEA STEPS, materially de-risking Scope 2 emissions if the trajectory holds.
WATCH
2030 horizon flatline
The IEA STEPS 2030 grid horizon value of 100 gCO2/kWh implies most decarbonisation gains arrive post-2030, so near-term Scope 2 reductions depend more on the site's own renewable generation than grid greening.
OPPORTUNITY
Low physical water risk
Baseline water stress is Low (score 0) and overall water risk is Low (0.64/100), removing water as a near-term constraint on manufacturing operations in the North Atlantic watershed.

Flows0 total · 0 in / 0 out · plus site context + supply/downstream

Inputs (dependencies)
WATER · site context · Aqueduct 4.0
REALM · FRESHWATER
BWS 0.00 · Low (<10%) · North Atlantic (ex 109, 116, 309, 311, 313, 444, 447, 448, 603, 608)
Water stress: 0.00 · 2030 — · 2050 — · 2080 —
Water depletion: 2030 — · 2050 — · 2080 —
ENERGY · site context · grid carbon
REALM · ATMOSPHERE
GB · Ember observed + IEA WEO STEPS
2025: 217 gCO₂/kWh → 2030: 100 → 2050: 30 → 2080: —
Outputs (impacts + product)
None.

Compositions

Parent (rolls up into)
Children (0)
None.