Karachi F268 · Transition modelFACILITY

The dominant dependency at this facility is freshwater — it carries a baseline water stress (BWS) score of 5, labeled Extremely High (>80%), with a water depletion score of 5 and an overall local water risk score of 3.6 (High, 60-75%). Untreated wastewater risk is also elevated at 3.97. Riverine flood exposure is moderate (2.50) while coastal flood risk is negligible (0.018). On the impact side, the site's dominant footprint is Scope 2 GHG, driven by grid electricity in Pakistan, where the 2023 observed grid intensity (Ember) is 480 gCO2/kWh — well above global decarbonized benchmarks — making energy-related carbon impact the primary transition-risk vector today.

By 2030, IEA WEO STEPS projections show Pakistan's grid intensity falling sharply to 350 gCO2/kWh, a meaningful but still-carbon-intensive trajectory (27% reduction from 2023 observed levels). No forward-looking water stress or depletion horizon data (2030/2050/2080) is available for this site, so the Extremely High BWS classification should be treated as a persistent, unmitigated present-state constraint absent site-level water investment. The gap between improving energy transition metrics and static/unknown water-risk metrics is the key near-term asymmetry for this facility.

Grid decarbonization continues on the STEPS pathway to 215 gCO2/kWh by 2050 — a 55% reduction from 2023 levels — indicating a credible, policy-linked decarbonization trajectory for Scope 2 emissions tied to this site. However, no 2080 grid figure is provided, and critically, no future water stress or water depletion labels/scores exist for any horizon, leaving physical water risk as an unquantified but likely persistent long-term exposure given Karachi's structural water scarcity. Absent site-level mitigation (water reuse, wastewater treatment, alternative sourcing), residual physical risk from water depletion is likely to remain the binding long-term constraint even as carbon intensity improves.