Korangi · Transition modelFACILITY

Korangi is designated a "manufacturing (high water risk site)" and sits in the Arabian Sea (ex 253) watershed with baseline water stress rated Low-Medium (BWS score 1.21) but an overall water risk score of 3.6, labeled High (60-75%) — driven by untreated wastewater discharge risk (3.97) and riverine flood exposure (4.03), with coastal flood risk also material (3.08). The dominant transition impact is Scope 2 GHG intensity: Pakistan's grid emitted 480 gCO2/kWh in 2023 (Ember), well above global averages, making grid electricity the site's principal carbon dependency. No flow-level water or energy volumes are recorded for this node, limiting quantification of absolute exposure.

By 2030, Pakistan's grid carbon intensity is projected to fall to 350 gCO2/kWh under IEA WEO 2024 STEPS — a ~27% reduction from 2023 levels — easing Scope 2 exposure without any operational change required at the site. Water-related forward-looking scores (wd/ws future scores and 2080 labels) are not populated, so the trajectory of physical water risk through 2030 cannot be evidenced from this dataset; the current High overall water risk rating (3.6) should be treated as the operative baseline for planning until updated.

Grid decarbonisation continues under STEPS to 215 gCO2/kWh by 2050, a further ~39% drop from 2030, indicating a credible multi-decade decline in transition-related emissions intensity for this facility. However, residual physical risk is likely to persist or worsen: riverine and coastal flood scores are already elevated, and untreated wastewater risk (3.97) points to local water quality/regulatory exposure independent of grid decarbonisation. Absent updated 2050/2080 water stress and depletion projections, water-related physical risk should be assumed non-improving and monitored as the binding constraint at this site.