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Tres Cantos — Pharma R&D unit · Transition modelFACILITY

GSK · operating_office · Tres Cantos, ES · 40.601, -3.704
basis: MEASURED · confidence: 0.65 · status: active

Climate & nature exec summaryTres Cantos, ES · claude-sonnet-5 · 2026-07-07

GSK's Tres Cantos R&D lab faces Extremely High baseline water stress in the Tagus basin even as Spain's grid decarbonises sharply toward 2050.

Today

As an R&D laboratory for global health medicines, Tres Cantos' dominant dependency is water for lab and facility operations, located in the Tagus basin under an Extremely High baseline water stress classification (BWS score 5, >80%) with a water depletion score of 4.55 out of 5 signaling significant existing pressure on local supply. Flood risk is negligible (riverine 0.18, coastal 0), and overall composite risk sits Low-Medium (score 1.32), but the water-stress signal is the standout physical pressure today. On the impact side, the site's carbon footprint tracks Spain's grid intensity, currently 153.6 gCO2/kWh (Ember 2025), making Scope 2 electricity the primary GHG-relevant impact channel; no on-site flow or consumption data (water volumes, energy use, waste) is provided in this dataset.

Near-term · 2030

Toward 2030, the grid emissions horizon of 95 gCO2/kWh signals a substantial near-term drop from the 2025 observed 153.6 gCO2/kWh, effectively lowering the energy-related transition burden for this Scope 2-dependent facility well ahead of 2050. What is not shifting is water stress: no 2030 forward-looking water-stress or water-depletion scores are populated in this dataset, so the Extremely High (>80%) baseline classification should be treated as the operative planning assumption for the next horizon absent updated basin projections.

Long-term · 2050+

By 2050 the Spanish grid is projected to reach 30 gCO2/kWh under IEA STEPS, effectively decoupling this lab's Scope 2 footprint from national power generation and leaving asset operations largely low-carbon by mid-century. The residual risk profile shifts almost entirely to physical water availability: no water-stress horizon scores are provided for 2030/2050/2080, but given today's Extremely High baseline (BWS 5) and elevated depletion (4.55/5), the Tagus basin is unlikely to self-correct without regional water-management intervention, meaning long-term site resilience will hinge on water efficiency and reuse investments rather than energy transition alone.

Call-outs
RISK
Extremely High baseline water stress
The Tres Cantos site sits in the TAGUS basin with a BWS score of 5 (Extremely High, >80%), meaning any water-dependent lab operations (cooling, sanitation, process water) compete for an already over-allocated resource.
WATCH
Water depletion elevated, drought moderate
Water depletion scores 4.55/5 alongside a drought score of 3.17/5, indicating chronic over-abstraction pressure in the basin even though flood risk (riverine 0.18, coastal 0) is negligible.
OPPORTUNITY
Spanish grid decarbonisation to 2050
Grid intensity is projected to fall from a 2025 observed 153.6 gCO2/kWh to a 2050 horizon of 30 gCO2/kWh (IEA WEO 2024 STEPS), sharply reducing Scope 2 exposure for this R&D facility if electricity remains the dominant energy dependency.
WATCH
2030 grid horizon spikes then falls
The 2030 grid horizon value of 95 gCO2/kWh is inconsistent with a smooth decline from 153.6 (2025) to 30 (2050), warranting a data-quality check on the interpolation before using it for near-term Scope 2 forecasting.

Flows0 total · 0 in / 0 out · plus site context + supply/downstream

Inputs (dependencies)
WATER · site context · Aqueduct 4.0
REALM · FRESHWATER
BWS 5.00 · Extremely High (>80%) · TAGUS
Water stress: 5.00 · 2030 · 2050 · 2080
Water depletion: 2030 · 2050 · 2080
ENERGY · site context · grid carbon
REALM · ATMOSPHERE
ES · Ember observed + IEA WEO STEPS
2025: 154 gCO₂/kWh2030: 952050: 302080:
Outputs (impacts + product)
None.

Compositions

Parent (rolls up into)
Children (0)
None.