Alfreton Depot · Transition modelFACILITY

As an operating-office control centre, Alfreton Depot's dominant dependency is grid electricity rather than water or extractive inputs, and its dominant impact is Scope 2 GHG tied to the GB grid, currently emitting 217.41 gCO2/kWh (Ember 2025). Physical water risk is currently low: overall water risk scores 0.64 (Low, <25%), baseline water stress is Low-Medium (10-20%, score 1.35), and coastal/riverine flood scores (0.86 and 0.66 respectively) are modest. The site sits in the North Sea watershed (ex catchments 605, 629, 633, 634, 638), and drought score of 3.25 is the one metric warranting monitoring rather than immediate concern.

By 2030, the GB grid emissions factor is projected to reach 100 gCO2/kWh under IEA WEO 2024 STEPS — less than half today's observed 217.41 gCO2/kWh — materially cutting Scope 2 intensity for this control centre with no operational change required on-site. Water-related metrics have no 2030 horizon data reported (wd_future_score and ws_future_score for 2030 are null), so physical water risk trajectory to 2030 cannot be quantified from this dataset and should be treated as a data gap rather than a stable-risk assumption.

The GB grid factor is projected to fall further to 30 gCO2/kWh by 2050 under the STEPS pathway, implying near-full decarbonisation of the electricity dependency and a steep decline in the site's Scope 2 footprint absent any change in consumption. No 2080 grid or water horizon data is provided, leaving long-run residual physical risk (flood, drought, water stress) unquantified beyond current-state scores; given today's Low overall risk rating, the base case is limited physical exposure, but the absence of 2050/2080 water labels means this cannot be confirmed with the same confidence as the emissions trajectory.