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Deeside Centre for Innovation · Transition modelFACILITY

National Grid · asset · Deeside, GB · 53.079, -2.879
basis: MEASURED · confidence: 0.65 · status: active

Climate & nature exec summaryDeeside, GB · claude-sonnet-5 · 2026-07-07

Deeside Centre for Innovation, a National Grid control centre in Wales (GB), faces low physical water risk today but sits on a UK grid decarbonisation path that will materially cut its Scope 2 intensity by 2030.

Today

As a control-centre asset, Deeside's dominant dependency is grid electricity rather than water, and its Scope 2 impact is set by the current GB grid intensity of 217.41 gCO2/kWh (Ember 2025). Local physical water pressure is low: baseline water stress is scored 0.107 (Low, <10%), overall water risk is 0.64 (Low, <25%), and the site sits in the North Atlantic watershed with modest drought (3.13) and flood scores (coastal 2.30, riverine 1.38). No untreated wastewater or depletion concerns register above low thresholds (0.16 and 0.24 respectively).

Near-term · 2030

By 2030, the GB grid carbon intensity horizon is flagged at 100 gCO2/kWh under IEA WEO 2024 STEPS, less than half today's observed value, meaning Scope 2 emissions tied to Deeside's electricity draw should fall sharply without any operational change at the site. Water-risk horizon scores (2030 water depletion and stress) are not populated in this dataset, so no forward view on physical water pressure is available; today's Low baseline is the only reference point. No flow-level (input/output) data is provided for this facility, limiting granular dependency mapping.

Long-term · 2050+

The GB grid trajectory continues to decarbonise toward 30 gCO2/kWh by 2050 per IEA STEPS, pointing to a near-fully decarbonised electricity dependency for this control centre by mid-century, with 2080 grid data not yet available. Residual physical risk remains low-to-moderate on current water indicators (coastal and riverine flood scores in the 1.4-2.3 range), but the absence of 2050/2080 water horizon labels or scores means long-dated physical risk trajectory cannot be confirmed from this dataset and should be treated as a data gap rather than a clean bill of health.

Call-outs
OPPORTUNITY
Grid decarbonisation cuts Scope 2
GB grid intensity is projected to fall from 217.41 gCO2/kWh today to 100 by 2030 and 30 by 2050, structurally lowering Deeside's Scope 2 footprint with no site-level intervention required.
WATCH
Water horizon data missing
No 2030/2050/2080 water stress or depletion scores are populated, so forward physical water risk at this site cannot be assessed from current data and should be sourced separately.
WATCH
No flow-level data
The flows array is empty, meaning input/output dependency volumes (electricity, water) are not quantified for this facility, constraining LEAP-aligned dependency analysis.
RISK
Coastal and riverine flood exposure
Coastal flood score of 2.30 and riverine flood score of 1.38 indicate non-trivial physical hazard for a control-centre asset where continuity of operations is critical.

Flows0 total · 0 in / 0 out · plus site context + supply/downstream

Inputs (dependencies)
WATER · site context · Aqueduct 4.0
REALM · FRESHWATER
BWS 0.11 · Low (<10%) · North Atlantic (ex 109, 116, 309, 311, 313, 444, 447, 448, 603, 604)
Water stress: 0.11 · 2030 · 2050 · 2080
Water depletion: 2030 · 2050 · 2080
ENERGY · site context · grid carbon
REALM · ATMOSPHERE
GB · Ember observed + IEA WEO STEPS
2025: 217 gCO₂/kWh2030: 1002050: 302080:
Outputs (impacts + product)
None.

Compositions

Parent (rolls up into)
Children (0)
None.