Derby Depot · Transition modelFACILITY

Derby Depot operates as a control centre for National Grid in the East Midlands, GB, where the dominant dependency is grid electricity (Scope 2) rather than water, given a Low-Medium baseline water stress score (BWS 1.35, North Sea watershed) and an overall Low water risk score of 0.64. Current grid carbon intensity is 217.41 gCO2/kWh (Ember 2025), directly driving the site's Scope 2 emissions profile. Physical pressure today is modest but not negligible: coastal flood score 0.86 and riverine flood score 0.66 sit above the site's otherwise low water-risk baseline, and drought score is a middling 3.25.

By 2030, IEA WEO 2024 STEPS horizon data show a GB grid intensity figure of 100 gCO2/kWh, a discontinuity against the 2025 observed value of 217.41 gCO2/kWh that likely reflects a scenario or methodology shift rather than a smooth linear decline and should be treated cautiously. Water-related forward scores (wd_future_score, ws_future_score) are entirely null across all horizons, meaning no quantified 2030 view exists for water demand or stress at this site; today's Low overall risk label (0.64) is the only anchor point available.

By 2050 the GB grid is projected at just 30 gCO2/kWh under IEA WEO 2024 STEPS, effectively decarbonising the facility's Scope 2 dependency and leaving asset continuity and physical resilience as the dominant residual concerns. No 2050/2080 water-stress or drought horizon data are provided, so long-term physical risk trajectory for this site cannot be quantified and should be treated as an open data gap rather than a benign assumption. Coastal and riverine exposure, currently moderate, are the parameters most likely to define residual physical risk at this horizon.