Nigeria IBX Data Centers · Transition modelFACILITY

The Lagos IBX depends on grid electricity in a market still running at 455.71 gCO2/kWh (2025, Ember), making Scope 2 emissions the dominant impact category, while water dependency is stressed by a High Baseline Water Stress score (3.92, 40-80th percentile) within the Gulf of Guinea watershed. Overall location water risk is rated Extremely High (score 4, >75th percentile), driven by a maximum untreated wastewater score of 5 and a drought score of 3.75, indicating acute pressure on both water supply reliability and wastewater discharge management at this single facility today.

By 2030, the grid emissions factor is forecast to nearly halve from the 2025 observed 455.71 gCO2/kWh to 290 gCO2/kWh under IEA WEO 2024 STEPS, meaningfully reducing Scope 2 intensity for this energy-dependent facility. Water-side horizon data (2030 water stress and depletion scores) are not populated in this dataset, so the physical risk picture at this horizon cannot be evidenced beyond today's baseline; drought score of 3.75 and riverine flood score of 2.61 should be treated as persistent absent updated projections.

By 2050 the IEA STEPS pathway puts Nigeria's grid at 130 gCO2/kWh, a roughly 71% reduction from the 2025 observed value of 455.71, which would substantially shrink the Scope 2 footprint of a Scope-2-dominant asset like this data centre. However, no 2050 or 2080 water-stress, depletion, or wastewater horizon data are provided, leaving the facility's long-term physical water risk trajectory undefined; given today's Extremely High overall risk score and ceiling-level untreated wastewater score, the working assumption should be that physical risk persists as a structural feature of the Gulf of Guinea watershed unless offsetting investment in treatment and water-efficient cooling is made.