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Oil & Gas · transition pathways

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The recognised primary transition pathway for oil & gas, plus the upstream sectors oil & gas firms depend on for their own decarbonisation. A consulting firm cutting business travel still needs aviation to decarbonise; a REIT cutting tenant energy still needs the grid to clean up. These are the rate limiters.

Primary pathway

IEA Net Zero by 2050 + SBTi Oil & Gas (draft) + TPI

IEA's Net Zero scenario implies no new oil and gas exploration from 2021 onwards. SBTi has draft Oil & Gas pathway methodology. TPI (Transition Pathway Initiative) assesses majors' alignment with 1.5°C and 'Below 2°C' benchmarks annually.

Reference ↗
Decarbonisation pathways
hover to read · click to pin
03163941252020203020402050
Year readout

Hover the chart to read off Best / Realistic / Worst values at any year. Click to pin the readout.

2050 endpoint:
Best 25% · Worst 95%
Oil + gas demand (combined energy) · % of 2020 demand · base 2020 · Source: IEA WEO 2023 — NZE / APS / STEPS
Dependant pathways· 5

Upstream sectors oil & gas firms rely on. The faster these decarbonise, the faster the firm can hit its own targets — even when it does everything in its control.

Power & electricity

Scope 2 + abatement enablement
Reference pathway

Electrification of upstream (drilling, compressors) and refining cuts Scope 1+2. Faster grid decarbonisation also raises the carbon penalty of fossil fuels in the wider economy.

framework:IEA Net Zero by 2050 (Power), Ember Global Electricity Review
0501002020203020402050
Best0%
Realistic15%
Worst60%
Grid carbon intensity · % of 2020 gCO2/kWh · base 2020
Source: IEA WEO 2023 — NZE / APS / STEPS
Your exposure

Sector-generic framing shown above — company-specific exposure narrative pending.

Methane abatement technology

Scope 1
Reference pathway

Vented + fugitive methane is the biggest cheap-to-cut S1 lever for upstream operations. Detection and capture tech availability sets the pace.

framework:Global Methane Pledge, OGCI Aiming for Zero
0501002020203020402050
Best10%
Realistic35%
Worst75%
Oil & gas methane emissions · % of 2020 CH4 · base 2020
Source: Global Methane Pledge (75% by 2030 for O&G)
Your exposure

Sector-generic framing shown above — company-specific exposure narrative pending.

Carbon Capture, Utilisation & Storage (CCUS)

Scope 1 abatement + post-combustion S3 cat 11
Reference pathway

Material residual emissions in the IEA NZE scenario assume large-scale CCUS deployment. Without it, upstream + refining carbon intensity floor is much higher.

framework:IEA Net Zero by 2050 (CCUS), IPCC AR6 WG3
0501002020203020402050
Best100
Realistic55
Worst25
CCUS capacity scaling (% of IEA NZE 2050 target) · % of 2050 NZE target capture · base 2020
Source: IEA NZE — 7.6 GtCO2/yr captured by 2050
Your exposure

Sector-generic framing shown above — company-specific exposure narrative pending.

Hydrogen & e-fuels (low-carbon)

Scope 1 substitution + product transition
Reference pathway

Refining migration to low-carbon feedstocks (green/blue H₂, e-methanol) determines whether the firm's product slate decarbonises or stays locked in. Sets the upper bound on residual-product Scope 3 cat 11.

framework:IEA Net Zero Roadmap (hydrogen), Hydrogen Council, IRENA
No global scenario — this pathway plays out at the site level. Select a site to see the local transition pathway.
Your exposure

Sector-generic framing shown above — company-specific exposure narrative pending.

Mining & critical minerals

Scope 3 · cat 1
Reference pathway

Refining catalysts (Pt, Pd, Mo, Ni), pipeline steel, drilling-rig componentry. Mining-sector decarbonisation pace caps embodied-emissions in capex + opex consumables.

framework:ICMM Climate Change Position
0501002020203020402050
Best15%
Realistic45%
Worst80%
Mining sector S1+S2 emissions · % of 2020 emissions · base 2020
Source: ICMM Climate Change Position, SBTi Mining (in development)
Your exposure

Sector-generic framing shown above — company-specific exposure narrative pending.

Decarbonisation by location — coming soon

Once we have HQ + operations location data per firm in this cohort, we'll overlay Ember grid-carbon-intensity data per country so you can see the geographical decarbonisation tailwind (or headwind) each firm is operating against.

Source: ember-energy.org · Global Electricity Review + per-country grid carbon intensity (gCO2/kWh).