Nabha · Transition modelFACILITY

The dominant dependency at Nabha is water — the site scores Extremely High on baseline water stress (BWS score 5, >80%), Extremely High on water depletion (5/5) and untreated wastewater risk (5/5), and carries a drought score of 4.35, all within the Arabian Sea (ex 296) watershed in Punjab, IN. Overall local risk is rated Medium-High (2.7/5, 50-60% band), tempered somewhat by riverine flood exposure at 3.25 and zero coastal flood risk given the inland location. On the impact side, Scope 2 emissions exposure is material: the site draws from India's grid, observed at 670.13 gCO2/kWh in 2025 (Ember), among the more carbon-intensive national grids GSK operates against. The asset is explicitly flagged in its own classification as a "former high water risk site," indicating this is a known, tracked exposure rather than a new finding.

By 2030, India's grid carbon intensity is projected to fall to 520 gCO2/kWh under IEA WEO 2024 STEPS — a meaningful but partial decarbonisation (down ~22% from 2025 observed levels) that will reduce but not eliminate Scope 2 exposure. No forward-looking water stress or depletion horizon scores are available for 2030, so the water risk picture through this horizon must be read as static at today's Extremely High baseline; this is a data gap analysts should flag rather than assume improvement.

Grid decarbonisation accelerates further to 250 gCO2/kWh by 2050 under STEPS, a roughly 63% reduction from 2025 levels, putting Nabha's Scope 2 trajectory on a credible improving path assuming grid delivery matches policy projection. Physical water risk, however, has no modeled 2050/2080 horizon data in this dataset, leaving the Extremely High water stress and depletion scores as the only available reference points — the residual risk of continued groundwater/basin stress in this Punjab watershed should be treated as persistent absent site-level mitigation (recycling, ZLD, or sourcing diversification) rather than assumed to ease with time.